Ilya Sutskever 重磅3万字访谈：AI告别规模化时代，回归“研究时代”的本质

Core Insights - The AI industry is transitioning from a "Scaling Era" back to a "Research Era," emphasizing fundamental innovation over mere model size expansion [4][7][40]. - Current AI models exhibit high performance in evaluations but lack true generalization capabilities, akin to students who excel in tests without deep understanding [10][25]. - SSI's strategy focuses on developing safe superintelligence without commercial pressures, aiming for a more profound understanding of AI's alignment with human values [15][16]. Group 1: Transition from Scaling to Research - The period from 2012 to 2020 was characterized as a "Research Era," while 2020 to 2025 is seen as a "Scaling Era," with a return to research now that computational power has significantly increased [4][7][40]. - Ilya Sutskever argues that simply scaling models will not yield further breakthroughs, as the data and resources are finite, necessitating new learning paradigms [7][39]. Group 2: Limitations of Current Models - Current models are compared to students who have practiced extensively but lack the intuitive understanding of true experts, leading to poor performance in novel situations [10][25]. - The reliance on pre-training and reinforcement learning has resulted in models that excel in benchmarks but struggle with real-world complexities, often introducing new errors while attempting to fix existing ones [20][21]. Group 3: Pursuit of Superintelligence - SSI aims to avoid the "rat race" of commercial competition, focusing instead on building a safe superintelligence that can care for sentient life [15][16]. - Ilya emphasizes the importance of a value function in AI, akin to human emotions, which guides decision-making and learning efficiency [32][35]. Group 4: Future Directions and Economic Impact - The future of AI is predicted to be marked by explosive economic growth once continuous learning challenges are overcome, leading to a diverse ecosystem of specialized AI companies [16][18]. - Ilya suggests that human roles may evolve to integrate with AI, maintaining balance in a world dominated by superintelligent systems [16][18].