芯片分销八年突围战：从封锁线到新航道

Core Insights - The core message emphasizes that selling chips is fundamentally about cycle trading rather than merely moving products, highlighting the importance of judgment and market understanding in the current landscape [2][17] - The evolution of the chip distribution industry is marked by five significant changes, reflecting a shift from product-centric to judgment-centric competition [4][12] Industry Changes - The Chinese chip industry has undergone drastic changes due to trade friction and the chip shortage, leading to a transformation in the role of distributors from mere sellers to critical players in risk management and supply chain stability [4][8] - The sales revenue of Chinese chip design companies is projected to grow from 194.5 billion RMB in 2017 to 835.7 billion RMB in 2025, indicating a fourfold increase [8] - China's chip exports are expected to rise from 66.9 billion USD in 2017 to 159.5 billion USD in 2024, showcasing a significant shift towards a dual circulation model in the chip market [10] Distribution Role Evolution - The role of distributors has evolved through five stages: from "merchandisers" to "firefighters," then to "risk managers," followed by "stabilizers," and currently to "judgment nodes" [26][28][30][33] - Distributors are now seen as essential buffers in the supply chain, providing stability and coordination during market fluctuations [34] Future Directions - The future of chip distribution will rely on a combination of capabilities, including clarity in market signals, stability in operations, agility in response, and strategic positioning within the supply chain [38] - Five growth avenues for distributors have been identified: AI server chains, engineering for domestic substitution, supply chain controllability, third-generation industry platforms, and global market expansion [40] Conclusion - The industry has demonstrated resilience, but future success will depend on navigating new pathways and adapting to changing market dynamics [44]