RockFlow Universe·2025-11-27 10:32Core Insights - Google is overcoming the "innovator's dilemma" with the launch of Gemini 3 and Nano Banana Pro, leveraging its TPU computing cluster as a significant competitive advantage in the AI era [3][5] - The market underestimates the destructive impact of "inference costs" on AI business models, with Google holding pricing power due to its self-developed TPU, contrasting with competitors reliant on Nvidia [3][6] - Concerns that AI would kill search advertising are being alleviated as Gemini 3 transforms search from "link finding" to a "decision engine," potentially increasing ad conversion rates [3][19] - Google has achieved a "full-stack sovereignty" with the combination of the strongest model (Gemini 3), the best computing power (TPU), and the largest entry points (Android/Chrome), positioning it for a market cap of $5 trillion [3][22] Group 1: TPU and Inference Costs - TPU is a critical asset for Google, allowing it to transition from being a "compute buyer" to a "rule maker" in the AI infrastructure war [6][8] - The AI semiconductor market is shifting focus from training to inference, with predictions indicating that by 2030, 75% of AI computing demand will be in the inference layer [6][7] - Google's TPU v7 (Ironwood) has shown a 100% improvement in performance per watt compared to its predecessor, and its inference performance is four times better than Nvidia's H100 [7][8] Group 2: Gemini 3 and Software Integration - Gemini 3 demonstrates Google's ability to convert talent from "Brain + DeepMind" into unmatched product capabilities, showcasing native multimodal abilities [9][10] - OpenAI and Meta are shifting towards Google’s TPU to reduce reliance on Nvidia, indicating a growing trend among competitors [10] - Gemini 3 can handle long context windows, evolving from a "chatbot" to a true "agent," capable of multi-tasking across platforms [11][13] Group 3: Investment Perspective - Warren Buffett's investment in Google signals confidence in its potential for value appreciation, with a current PE ratio of around 27, offering a non-symmetric return opportunity [14] - Google's stock buyback strategy enhances shareholder value, similar to Apple's approach, making it an attractive investment in a volatile tech market [14] Group 4: Business Model Evolution - Google's search advertising business remains robust, generating significant free cash flow, while AI opens new avenues for high-value decision-making [15][16] - The introduction of Gemini-driven SGE (Generative Search Experience) allows for structured comparisons in search results, enhancing ad value [19][20] - As long as Google can demonstrate higher ad conversion rates with AI assistance, advertisers will be willing to pay a premium, indicating that search is evolving rather than dying [20][21]