国信证券首席经济学家荀玉根：牛市远未结束

Core Viewpoint - The current bull market is still in its early stages, drawing parallels to the historical "5·19 market," which lasted two years with a 120% increase before policy withdrawal ended it. Current economic pressures and low CPI indicate that policy support is still needed [2][3]. Group 1: Market Analysis - The current bull market is expected to last 1-2 years, with signs indicating it is still early in the cycle. Characteristics typical of a late bull market, such as a surge of new investors and overconfidence among existing investors, have not yet emerged [2][3]. - The Shanghai Composite Index has reached a 10-year high despite a challenging macroeconomic environment, suggesting a disconnect between stock market performance and economic fundamentals [3]. Group 2: Economic Context - The Chinese economy is experiencing "growing pains" during its transition, reminiscent of the period from 1998 to 2000, characterized by overcapacity in traditional industries and a downturn in real estate [3]. - Real estate constitutes 60% of household wealth in China, with property prices in first-tier cities dropping by 30%-50%. For instance, property values in Shanghai have decreased by 35%, leading to significant wealth erosion for residents [3]. Group 3: Policy Implications - To reverse the trend of declining asset prices, policy intervention is crucial. Historical precedents show that timely policy measures can lead to rapid market recoveries, as seen in the "5·19 market" and the "9·24 market" [4]. - The external environment is shifting, with the Federal Reserve entering a rate-cutting cycle, which could provide more room for domestic policy easing in China [4]. Group 4: Future Outlook - The emergence of new economic sectors, particularly in intelligent manufacturing, is becoming evident. Innovations such as the DeepSeek-R1 model and humanoid robots are setting the stage for a significant industrial upgrade [5]. - China's manufacturing sector is benefiting from a large pool of graduates and engineers, which enhances its cost advantages and positions it for a successful transition from old to new economic drivers [5].