德国经济又“复活了”？

Core Viewpoint - After more than five years of stagnation, the German economy is showing signs of recovery, with growth expected in 2026 and 2027 at 1.2% according to EU forecasts [4][5]. Economic Indicators - The German GDP remained stable in Q3, avoiding recession, with industrial orders, output, and exports showing recovery in September [4]. - The IMF noted that the German government's reform of the debt brake mechanism is a significant milestone that will aid in economic recovery [4][11]. Government Initiatives - The German government has established a special fund of €500 billion for infrastructure projects, which is considered additional debt and does not count against the current debt ceiling [6][7]. - This fund is expected to take time to impact GDP, likely not until 2026 or 2027 [6]. Sectoral Adjustments - A significant portion of the special fund is allocated for defense, which may help offset losses in the manufacturing sector [7]. - The construction industry, which has faced a deep recession, is crucial for economic recovery, accounting for about 50% of Germany's total output loss over the past three years [8]. Future Projections - The IMF predicts that government spending increases starting in 2026 will provide a positive boost to economic growth, with real GDP growth expected to accelerate to around 1% in 2026 and 1.5% in 2027 [9][11]. - The trade balance is expected to gradually decline but remain positive, with inflation projected to stay close to the ECB's target of 2% [9]. Challenges and Warnings - The IMF warns that without further bold reforms, Germany faces serious mid-term growth challenges, particularly due to a declining working-age population [5][12]. - Concerns exist regarding the potential misuse of new debt for welfare spending rather than productive investments, necessitating careful oversight of fund allocation [10][13].