历史新高！白银再度狂飙，释放什么信号？

Core Viewpoint - The precious metals market has seen a significant surge recently, with silver particularly standing out, driven by expectations of Federal Reserve easing, declining real interest rates, and a persistent supply-demand imbalance in the silver market [2][3]. Price Movements - On November 28, spot silver surged over 6%, breaking the $56 per ounce mark, reaching a historical high of $56.78 per ounce, with a year-to-date increase of 90% [2][3]. - The Shanghai silver night market also performed strongly, rising over 5% to exceed 13,000 yuan, while spot gold returned to $4,200 per ounce [2][3]. Macroeconomic Factors - The core catalyst for the recent rise in silver prices is the repricing of interest rates and policy expectations, with the Federal Reserve initiating a new easing cycle since September, lowering the federal funds rate to a range of 3.75%-4.00% [3][4]. - Market expectations for a potential rate cut in December have increased to 85%, influenced by recent statements from key Federal Reserve officials and weak economic data [4]. Supply and Demand Dynamics - The silver market has faced a structural supply-demand gap for five consecutive years, with the Silver Institute predicting a supply of approximately 813 million ounces in 2025, remaining roughly flat year-on-year [5]. - Global demand is expected to decline by about 4% to 1.12 billion ounces, with industrial demand decreasing by approximately 2% [5]. Future Outlook - Despite a decline in demand, the supply gap is projected to persist, with an expected structural supply deficit of about 95 million ounces in 2025 [5]. - Institutions forecast a continued structural bull market for silver, with UBS raising its price forecast by $5-$8 per ounce, anticipating silver to trade at $60 per ounce by 2026 [7]. - The demand for silver in sectors like photovoltaics, data centers, and electric vehicles is expected to expand, despite a decrease in per-unit silver consumption [7].