航油“巨无霸”真的要来了！

Core Viewpoint - The relative stability of the Chinese aviation fuel market has been disrupted, initiating a transformation led by industry giants that aims to reshape the rules and landscape of the sector [1][6]. Restructuring Announcement - On October 30, 2025, China Aviation Oil (Singapore) Corporation Limited announced that its controlling shareholder, China Aviation Oil Group, is undergoing a restructuring with another enterprise group [2][8]. - The restructuring involves comprehensive integration of assets, channels, and personnel, marking a significant shift from mere capital cooperation to a full industry chain reconstruction [3][4]. Market Dynamics and Reactions - The restructuring has prompted swift and complex reactions from various enterprises within the industry, with concerns about pricing power and supply stability being paramount among aviation companies and smaller refining firms [6][10]. - The restructuring aims to create a "super supply chain" that integrates distribution networks and refining capabilities, potentially enhancing efficiency from refining to refueling [9][10]. Competitive Landscape - The merger of China Aviation Oil Group and a major energy enterprise could significantly alter the competitive landscape of the domestic aviation fuel market, focusing on efficiency improvements across the entire supply chain [5][11]. - The restructuring is expected to elevate competition from channel-based to efficiency and cost-based competition across the entire industry chain [10][11]. Industry Structure and Market Share - Historically, the aviation fuel market in China has been characterized by a stable structure dominated by state-owned giants, with China Aviation Oil Group acting as a key intermediary [13][14]. - China Aviation Oil Group holds approximately 40% of the market share in the distribution and terminal service segments, while state-owned enterprises like Sinopec and PetroChina dominate the production side with about 81% market share [14]. Future Opportunities and Challenges - The restructuring is anticipated to create both pressures and opportunities for smaller players in the market, as they may face challenges in maintaining market share against a newly formed giant [14][21]. - The focus on sustainable aviation fuel (SAF) is emerging as a critical area, with China Aviation Oil Group actively investing in SAF production to align with future regulatory requirements [20][21]. Strategic Adjustments - Companies within the industry are reassessing their strategies in light of the restructuring, with some exploring partnerships or alternative supply channels to mitigate risks associated with the potential dominance of the new entity [16][18]. - The restructuring is seen as a catalyst for a new wave of differentiation and consolidation within the aviation fuel market, prompting companies to adapt to the evolving competitive landscape [11][21].