投中信息杨晓磊：创投市场拐点已至

Core Viewpoint - The private equity market in China has reached a turning point, with optimism for the future, particularly towards 2026, as the venture capital market has emerged from its low point [2]. Fundraising and Exit Improvements - Significant improvements have been observed in both fundraising and exit activities, with new fund establishments and investment amounts increasing by 10% to 20% year-on-year for the first three quarters of 2024. Additionally, exit scales have surged by over 100% due to the recovery of the secondary market [5]. Increased Long-term Capital Supply - There has been a notable increase in long-term capital supply, with "patient capital" from social security funds, insurance funds, and Asset Investment Companies (AIC) enhancing market liquidity. Since September 2024, five major banks have established 99 AIC funds with a total scale of 198 billion yuan [8]. Concentration of Funds in Technology Innovation - Funds, including AIC and local technology innovation funds, are increasingly concentrated in the technology innovation sector. There are concerns among fund managers regarding whether the industry can support such a large influx of capital and if there are enough high-quality early-stage technology companies to invest in [8]. Cautious Approach of Insurance Capital - Despite the rising proportion of state-owned capital, the scale of insurance capital investment has decreased year-on-year. Insurance capital has become more cautious in its investment strategies, typically entering after initial rounds and focusing on later stages once performance becomes evident [8]. Performance Comparison with the U.S. - The performance realization rate in China's venture capital sector is higher than that in the U.S. The "performance realization degree" indicator shows that the cash return to book value ratio is favorable in China compared to the U.S. [10]. Impact of Economic Cycles on Fund Performance - The macroeconomic cycle and policy direction have a direct impact on fund performance. Generally, early-established funds show better total return multiples (TVPI) compared to newer funds, with the period from 2014 to 2017 showing overall better performance than previous years [12]. Role of State Capital - Large state-owned funds, such as social security and national innovation funds, align well with the characteristics of the industry and serve as a stable long-term funding source, acting as a "ballast" for the development of the venture capital market [12].