中外资机构：2026年继续看好中国股市

Group 1 - The article presents a cautiously optimistic outlook for the Chinese stock market, emphasizing the importance of focusing on fundamentals and structural investment themes to capture excess returns [12][13] - A "barbell strategy" is recommended, favoring high-quality internet and technology leaders, as well as sectors aligned with China's 14th Five-Year Plan, including AI and innovative companies [13][15] - The anticipated performance of A-shares and offshore Chinese stocks is expected to be roughly comparable in 2026, supported by liquidity from southbound capital and global investors [12][13] Group 2 - The article highlights the attractiveness of A-shares and Hong Kong stocks due to their relatively low valuations compared to other emerging markets, with a focus on the technology sector [14][15] - Key drivers for the Chinese stock market include abundant liquidity, valuation recovery, and the impact of AI applications and consumer sentiment upgrades on corporate profitability [17][20] - The article notes that the current market rally has already priced in profit expectations, and the sustainability of this rally will depend on actual improvements in corporate earnings [20] Group 3 - The article discusses expectations for the Federal Reserve's interest rate cuts, predicting a reduction to a target range of 3.0% to 3.25% by mid-2026 [22] - It suggests that the current economic environment may lead to a shift of funds from bonds to stocks, benefiting the equity market [17][18] Group 4 - The article indicates a preference for global stock over bonds and credit, with a recommendation to overweight U.S. stocks and Japanese stocks in the global asset allocation [30][31] - It emphasizes the importance of diversifying investments across global stocks, particularly in light of a weakening dollar and supportive global policies [33] Group 5 - The article presents a positive outlook for gold prices, forecasting a potential rise to $4,500 per ounce in 2026, driven by macroeconomic uncertainties and inflation hedging demands [27][28] - It also highlights the potential for gold mining stocks to perform well in the context of rising gold prices [34]