AI驱动电子创新，PCB中期行情来了！

Core Viewpoint - The transition of computing power architecture from GPU servers to orthogonal and wireless cabling is enhancing the sensitivity to material loss, making PCB a core component in AI hardware for interconnection and power supply [2] - The construction boom of AI server clusters is driving simultaneous upgrades in computing boards, switches, and optical modules, leading to increased demand and prices in the PCB market [2] - Unlike the short-term fluctuations seen during the 5G cycle, the current AI cycle exhibits long-term characteristics of continuous technological iteration, with high-end PCB supply tightness expected to last until 2027 [2][7] PCB Cycle Driving Factors - PCB is a fundamental component in the electronics industry, with its demand closely correlated to innovations in downstream applications such as PCs, mobile phones, and communications [5] - Each wave of electronic product upgrades has historically driven the PCB industry's growth, from desktop computers in the 90s to smartphones and 5G base stations in recent years [5] AI Computing Market Impact - The AI computing market is larger and has a longer construction cycle compared to the 5G era, significantly boosting PCB demand [7] - For instance, the PCB value for a single GB300 NVL72 chip is approximately 3000 yuan, while ASIC chips can reach around 4000 yuan [7] - By 2026, the AI server PCB market is projected to exceed 60 billion yuan, and when including demand from switches and optical modules, the overall market could reach a trillion yuan level [7] Demand and Supply Analysis - AI computing infrastructure is now the core driver of PCB demand, directly increasing the need for high-end PCBs in AI servers, high-speed switches, and optical modules [10] - The projected PCB market size for AI servers is expected to reach 379 billion yuan and 689 billion yuan in 2025 and 2026, respectively, indicating substantial growth potential [10] - Global demand for computing-related PCBs is forecasted to reach 181.5 billion yuan by 2026, with a supply gap of nearly 20 billion yuan anticipated, although this gap is expected to narrow by 2027 as production capacity increases [10] A-Share PCB Companies Expansion Plans - Shenghong Technology plans to acquire a factory in Thailand for 279 million yuan and aims for a total output value of 150-200 billion yuan by 2026 [13] - Jingwang Electronics has announced expansion plans to increase production capacity by 20 million square meters per year by the end of 2025 [13] - Shenyang Electronics is focusing on high-end communication HDI boards and has set ambitious expansion targets for its facilities [14] Core Materials for PCB - Various types of copper foil are essential for PCB production, with HTE copper foil being commonly used for its excellent elongation properties at high temperatures [16] - The global supply of HVLP copper foil is dominated by companies such as Mitsui Mining & Smelting and Furukawa Electric, with Mitsui being a leading player [19] Future Outlook - The PCB industry is poised for long-term growth driven by the AI cycle, with both volume and price increases expected alongside structural optimization [23] - The industry is entering a new phase characterized by "technology-driven and regional rebalancing," suggesting a focus on leading companies with advanced manufacturing capabilities and robust material supply chains [23]