能源金话筒丨“万亿方”可期，天然气是可再生能源的“最佳伙伴”

Core Insights - Global natural gas consumption is expected to reach a historical high in 2024, with a growth rate of 2.5%, accounting for 40% of the global increase in energy demand [2] - China's natural gas consumption is projected to grow by 7.3% year-on-year in 2024, significantly higher than the global growth rate, indicating substantial future growth potential [2] - The International Gas Union (IGU) emphasizes the importance of natural gas in achieving China's dual carbon goals and the development of a new energy system [2][10] Group 1: Global and Chinese Natural Gas Market - In 2024, natural gas will constitute approximately 23% of global primary energy consumption, while in China, it will only account for 8.8%, highlighting a significant growth opportunity [2] - The IGU anticipates that China's annual natural gas consumption could reach 1 trillion cubic meters, driven by strong demand and effective domestic production increases [2][15] - The global energy supply in 2024 is expected to hit historical highs across all energy types, with fossil fuels still making up about 80% of the energy mix [9] Group 2: Role of Natural Gas in Energy Transition - Natural gas is viewed as the "best partner" for renewable energy, essential for providing stability and support during the transition to a low-carbon energy system [10][14] - The energy transition is a lengthy process, and natural gas will continue to play a crucial role in the energy mix for the foreseeable future [10] - The global energy demand is projected to grow, with electricity demand expected to increase by 4% in 2024, indicating a rising need for flexible energy sources like natural gas [9] Group 3: Development of Gas Power in China - Gas power is essential for energy transition, with the potential to reduce carbon emissions by approximately 50% when replacing coal power [11] - Currently, gas power contributes only 3.2% to China's electricity generation, significantly lower than in the US and Europe, indicating room for growth [14] - The flexibility of gas turbines allows for better integration with renewable energy sources, providing necessary backup during periods of low renewable generation [12][13] Group 4: Future Prospects and Challenges - China's natural gas consumption is expected to reach between 600 billion to 650 billion cubic meters by 2040, driven by urban development and energy transition needs [16][17] - The country has made significant progress in increasing domestic natural gas production, with expectations of further increases through enhanced exploration and technology [17][20] - The development of gas power in China faces challenges related to resource availability and pricing mechanisms, which need to be addressed for sustainable growth [14][20]