日本债汇遭抛售或触发全球债市风暴

Core Viewpoint - The Japanese government is planning to issue approximately 11.7 trillion yen (about 529.9 billion RMB) in new bonds to finance a large-scale economic stimulus plan, which has raised concerns about the sustainability of Japan's fiscal health and the balance between economic stimulus and fiscal responsibility [1][4][7]. Group 1: Economic Stimulus Plan - The comprehensive economic strategy finalized by the Japanese government amounts to approximately 21.3 trillion yen, with general account expenditures expected to be around 18.3 trillion yen, marking a significant increase of 27% compared to the previous year [2]. - The economic measures included in this plan represent the largest stimulus since the pandemic began, with the costs associated with the economic strategy estimated at 17.7 trillion yen [2]. Group 2: Debt Issuance and Market Reaction - The scale of the new bond issuance far exceeds the 6.7 trillion yen bonds issued by the previous administration, indicating a high reliance on debt financing [4]. - Despite a record tax revenue forecast of 80.7 trillion yen for the current fiscal year, the new debt issuance reflects ongoing concerns about Japan's long-term fiscal outlook, leading to continued selling pressure on the yen and Japanese government bonds [1][5]. Group 3: Interest Rates and Currency Dynamics - The yield on Japan's 10-year government bonds has risen to approximately 1.814%, with long-term bond yields increasing due to market concerns over fiscal deterioration and expectations of interest rate hikes by the Bank of Japan [5][9]. - The yen has stabilized around 156 against the dollar, influenced by market expectations of a potential interest rate hike in December, which has mitigated some depreciation pressures [5][8]. Group 4: Risks and Future Outlook - There are rising concerns that the Japanese government's ability to balance economic stimulus with fiscal discipline is under scrutiny, especially as the debt-to-GDP ratio exceeds 260% [7]. - If the government continues to rely on debt issuance without implementing tax reforms or controlling social security expenditures, the long-term fiscal situation may worsen, leading to higher interest payments that could crowd out other budgetary needs [7][9]. - The potential for renewed selling pressure on the yen and Japanese bonds exists if the Bank of Japan delays interest rate hikes, which could further erode market confidence in Japan's fiscal and monetary policies [9][10].