白银年内暴涨近100%，铜价狂飙，美联储降息概率飙升至87%

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the significant rise in silver prices, driven by a combination of factors including supply shortages, increased industrial demand, and expectations of interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve, which have collectively contributed to a bullish outlook for silver and other precious metals [5][6][7]. Group 1: Silver Market Dynamics - Silver has experienced a remarkable increase, with prices reaching $57 per ounce, marking a year-to-date gain of 98% [1]. - The Shanghai Futures Exchange reported that the main silver contract price surged to 13,520 yuan per kilogram, reflecting an increase of over 7% and marking eight consecutive months of price growth [1][7]. - The World Silver Association forecasts a narrowing of the global silver supply gap to 117.6 million ounces by 2025, with total supply expected to rise by 2% and demand to decrease by 1% [9]. Group 2: Economic Indicators and Federal Reserve Actions - The upcoming Federal Reserve meeting is anticipated to result in a 25 basis point rate cut, with a probability of 87.4% according to CME data, which is expected to support precious metal prices [5][6]. - The market is closely watching the Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) report, which is a key inflation indicator, with expectations of a slight increase in the overall PCE year-on-year growth to 2.8% [5]. Group 3: Investment Trends - Institutional investors are increasingly allocating funds to silver through various channels, including ETFs and futures contracts, with global silver ETF holdings rising significantly [10]. - Retail investors are also showing heightened interest in silver, with sales of silver bars and coins increasing by over 40% year-on-year, reflecting the metal's appeal as a "people's precious metal" [10].