独立储能及海外储能情况更新 美国储能电芯仍依赖中国

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the impact of the "Big Beautiful Act" on energy storage projects, highlighting the urgency for project delivery and the implications for subsidies based on local manufacturing and technology licensing strategies. Group 1: Impact of the Big Beautiful Act - The Big Beautiful Act leads to a rush in project deliveries due to tariff relief periods, causing previously agreed projects to start shipping [1] - Two ways to avoid the Act's impact and continue receiving ITC subsidies are having local factories in North America or adopting a technology licensing model [1][2] Group 2: Trade and Subsidy Challenges - Direct exports from China or through Southeast Asia will incur tariffs and will not qualify for subsidies, complicating the situation for companies like Yiwei [3] - The Act directly affects PFE factors, with companies like Yuanjing facing challenges due to their significant battery production capacity in the U.S. [4] Group 3: Strategies for Addressing SCOE Issues - Yuanjing is pursuing two strategies: collaborating with controlled partners to acquire factory shares and working closely with clients needing U.S. production to secure future orders [5] Group 4: Market Capacity and Pricing - The U.S. battery production capacity is insufficient, leading to reliance on Chinese investments, which may increase overall system prices due to tariffs and long construction cycles [8] - The expected storage installation capacity in the U.S. for this year is projected to exceed 39 GWh, nearing 50 GWh, but is expected to decline next year due to higher tariffs and the Act's requirements [10][11] Group 5: European and Middle Eastern Market Insights - The European market is expected to grow from 8-9 GWh last year to approximately 15-16 GWh this year, with lower prices in Central Europe [13] - The Middle East market's growth is slower than anticipated, with project delays affecting installation volumes, but certain projects remain strong growth points [14] Group 6: Domestic Market Dynamics - The domestic electrochemical energy storage market is thriving, driven by policy support and increasing demand for storage solutions [21] - The investment logic for domestic storage projects includes self-built storage or partnerships to smooth power curves, with revenue sources from price differences, auxiliary services, and capacity subsidies [22][29] Group 7: Future Outlook and Investment Considerations - The domestic storage market is expected to continue growing, with significant increases in battery shipment volumes anticipated this year [23] - Investment returns in storage projects are influenced by policy changes, market competition, and the evolving electricity market, necessitating careful evaluation [30]