13个精算师·2025-12-01 09:48Core Viewpoint - The life insurance industry appears to be thriving with reported profits of 460 billion RMB in the first three quarters of the year, but a deeper analysis reveals a concerning decline in net assets under the CGAAP standards, indicating underlying financial pressures [1][2]. Summary by Sections 1. Changes in Net Assets under CGAAP - Despite a reported increase of 222 billion RMB in net assets for companies that disclosed third-quarter results, most life insurance companies experienced a decline in net assets under the old CGAAP standards, primarily due to rising long-term interest rates and poor performance in equity investments [2][3]. - The average return of high-dividend stocks, heavily weighted in the life insurance sector, fell significantly, with only a few companies outperforming the 18% return of the CSI 300 index in the third quarter [2][3]. 2. Implementation of New Accounting Standards (IFRS 17) - Several established life insurance companies have adopted the IFRS 17 accounting standards, leading to higher reported profits compared to the old CGAAP standards. This shift has resulted in changes in liability assessment curves that positively impact comprehensive income [3][4]. - The transition to IFRS 17 allows for the exclusion of certain losses from financial statements, enhancing the reported profitability of companies that have adopted the new standards [4][5]. 3. Net Asset Operational Changes - The operational change in net assets for the life insurance sector was negative 99 million RMB, with only 20 companies reporting positive growth. The "old seven" companies saw a 4% increase, while foreign and small domestic companies experienced declines of 16% and 11%, respectively [10][11]. - The banking-affiliated companies faced the most significant decline in net assets, with a drop of 24%, attributed to their high leverage ratios and the reclassification of HTM assets to AFS [11][12]. 4. Factors Influencing Net Asset Changes - The average yield curve for interest rates increased by 25 basis points, leading to a decline in the market value of existing AFS bonds, estimated to be a loss of 200 to 300 billion RMB for the industry [14][15]. - If the asset and liability assessment curves had remained unchanged, the net assets of the companies could have increased by 500 to 600 billion RMB, primarily driven by excess returns from equity investments [15][16]. 5. Future Implications of IFRS 17 - Starting in 2026, all insurance companies in China will implement IFRS 17, which is expected to provide better alignment between asset and liability assessment curves, potentially offering a protective effect on net assets, especially for traditional insurance products [19][21]. - The focus on duration matching will become increasingly important under the new standards, as it will significantly influence the net assets and solvency of companies in the future [18][19].