2026年中国经济怎么看、怎么干？刘世锦、李扬、蔡昉最新发声

Core Viewpoints - The article emphasizes the need for structural reforms and innovation to stimulate China's economic growth during the "14th Five-Year Plan" period, despite facing short-term challenges [1][11]. Group 1: Economic Growth and Policy Recommendations - The CMF annual report suggests setting a cross-cycle target for 2026, including a real GDP growth target of 4.5%-5%, a CPI target of 1%-3%, and a nominal GDP growth target of over 5% [2]. - Liu Shijin advocates for increasing the consumption share of GDP by 1 percentage point annually during the "14th Five-Year Plan" period to boost economic growth [6][7]. - The report highlights the importance of enhancing both the height (productivity) and width (effective demand) of economic growth [6]. Group 2: Financial Factors and Market Opportunities - Li Yang identifies four key financial factors influencing economic operations from 2026 onwards: changes in social financing structure, declining interest rates, new opportunities in capital markets, and a new paradigm for monetary policy [3]. - The phenomenon of "disintermediation" is seen as a positive development for capital market growth, as funds are flowing out of the banking system, creating new investment opportunities [3][4]. Group 3: Employment and Income Distribution - Cai Fang emphasizes the need for a coordinated approach to promote employment, increase income, and stabilize expectations, proposing five combinations to achieve these goals [8][9]. - The focus on increasing both per capita income and improving income distribution is crucial, especially in light of the natural slowdown in income growth [9]. Group 4: Long-term Economic Outlook - Yang Ruilong asserts that despite short-term pressures, the long-term positive trend of the Chinese economy remains unchanged, driven by traditional growth dynamics and emerging new growth drivers [11][12]. - The necessity of building a modern industrial system through technological innovation and institutional reform is highlighted as essential for achieving high-quality development [12].