2026年中国经济怎么看、怎么干？刘世锦、李扬、蔡昉、杨瑞龙最新发声

Core Insights - The article discusses key recommendations from prominent economists at the China Macro Economic Forum (CMF) regarding China's economic development during the "14th Five-Year Plan" period and beyond, emphasizing the importance of structural reforms and innovation to stimulate domestic vitality [1][2]. Group 1: Economic Growth and Consumption - Liu Shijun advocates for increasing the consumption share of GDP by 1 percentage point annually during the "14th Five-Year Plan" period, highlighting the need to stabilize and expand terminal demand to boost investment [6][8]. - The report presented by Liu Xiaoguang suggests setting cross-cycle targets for economic growth, including a real GDP growth target of 4.5%-5% and a CPI target of 1%-3% for 2026 [2]. Group 2: Financial Factors and Market Opportunities - Li Yang identifies four major financial factors influencing economic operations from 2026 onwards: changes in social financing structure, declining interest rates, new opportunities in capital markets, and a new paradigm for monetary policy [4]. - The phenomenon of "disintermediation" is noted as a positive trend, with funds flowing out of the banking system, which could create better conditions for capital market development [3][4]. Group 3: Employment and Income Distribution - Cai Fang emphasizes the need for a coordinated approach to promote employment, increase income, and stabilize expectations, proposing a framework of "five combinations" to address these issues [10][11]. - The focus on increasing per capita income and improving income distribution is critical, with suggestions to enhance labor remuneration and expand public services to reduce disparities [12][13]. Group 4: Long-term Economic Strategy - Yang Ruilong stresses the importance of addressing short-term economic challenges with a long-term perspective, advocating for the modernization of the industrial system and the integration of technological innovation [14][15]. - The article concludes that despite current pressures, the fundamental trend of China's economy remains positive, with potential for sustainable growth through structural reforms and innovation [1][15].