DuPont(US:DD) 材料汇·2025-12-01 14:10Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the potential supply disruption of core photoresists by Japanese companies like Canon and Nikon, analyzing the implications of such actions in the context of the semiconductor industry and the ongoing China-Japan semiconductor rivalry [3][21]. Group 1: Japan's Supply Power - Japan holds significant power in the semiconductor materials and equipment sector, particularly in photoresists, where it dominates 95% of the global market share through companies like JSR, Shin-Etsu Chemical, and Tokyo Ohka Kogyo [5][8]. - In the photoresist market, the domestic production rates for G-line and I-line photoresists exceed 60%, while KrF photoresists have a low domestic production rate of less than 5% [7]. - Japan's dominance extends to 14 out of 19 critical semiconductor materials, with major players like Shin-Etsu Chemical holding a 27% market share in silicon wafers [8]. Group 2: Economic Interdependence - China is Japan's largest customer in the semiconductor sector, with Japan's semiconductor equipment exports to China reaching $11.843 billion in 2021, accounting for 38.8% of Japan's total exports [10]. - The semiconductor trade between China and Japan exceeded $47 billion in 2021, with over 30,000 Japanese semiconductor-related companies operating in China, relying on the Chinese market for 20%-30% of their revenue [10][11]. - The potential for a complete supply disruption poses a significant risk to Japanese companies, as it could severely impact their production capacity and revenue [10][11]. Group 3: Emerging Supply Chain Challenges - While a complete supply disruption is unlikely, "de facto" supply restrictions are becoming more common, such as increased export controls and approval delays for semiconductor equipment [12][14]. - Approval rates for photoresist exports to China have dropped from 89% to 76%, with longer approval times indicating a tightening of supply [14]. - Japanese companies may prioritize supply to international clients over Chinese firms, leading to reduced quantities and increased prices for Chinese customers [15][16]. Group 4: China's Response and Opportunities - The pressure from Japan's supply restrictions is prompting Chinese wafer fabs to prioritize supply chain security, accelerating the validation and application of domestic photoresists [18][20]. - Chinese companies have made significant advancements in high-end photoresist production, with several firms achieving stable sales and customer validation for their products [18][20]. - The shift towards domestic alternatives is seen as a critical strategy for breaking Japan's monopoly in the semiconductor materials sector [18][20]. Conclusion - A complete supply disruption from Japan is deemed unlikely due to mutual economic interests, but the trend of indirect supply restrictions is expected to persist in the ongoing semiconductor rivalry [21][22]. - The focus for China should be on enhancing its capabilities across the semiconductor supply chain to mitigate reliance on Japanese imports [22].