美国就业警报拉响！降息大局已定？

Core Viewpoint - The overall manufacturing sentiment in the U.S. continues to decline, marking the ninth consecutive month below the threshold, primarily due to the impacts of the trade war initiated by the Trump administration, which has led to decreased orders, job demand pressure, and increased production costs [3][4]. Manufacturing Sector Pressure - The ISM reported that the manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) fell from 48.7 in October to 48.2 in November, with the new orders sub-index dropping to 47.4, indicating weakened demand due to tariffs raising prices [5][6]. - Manufacturing employment indicators have contracted for ten consecutive months, with 67% of survey participants indicating that managing personnel numbers is the norm rather than hiring new employees [5][6]. - The manufacturing sector accounts for 10.1% of the U.S. economy, with only four industries, including computers and electronics, showing growth, while sectors like wood products and transportation equipment are experiencing contraction [6][7]. Impact of Tariffs and Economic Uncertainty - Manufacturers in the transportation equipment sector are linking layoffs to the extensive tariff policies of President Trump, indicating a shift towards permanent adjustments, including layoffs and new overseas production initiatives [6][7]. - Chemical product manufacturers report that tariffs and economic uncertainty are suppressing demand for adhesives and sealants, which are primarily used in construction [6][7]. - The chaotic trade environment has led to complaints from electrical equipment and appliance manufacturers regarding increasing difficulties in exporting to the U.S. [6][7]. Federal Reserve's Policy Considerations - As the Federal Reserve approaches its year-end meeting, market attention is focused on economic data, including the ISM services index and the ADP private employment report, which are critical for assessing future policy directions [8][9]. - Recent data shows that the number of Americans filing for unemployment benefits rose to 1.96 million, the highest level since the pandemic, indicating significant challenges in the job market [9][10]. - The Federal Reserve has already cut rates twice since September and may consider another cut in the coming weeks, with expectations for a 25 basis point reduction at the December meeting [9][10].