越南楼市陷入“越涨越抢”怪圈

Core Viewpoint - The recent housing rush in major Vietnamese cities, particularly Hanoi, is driven by a combination of genuine demand and speculative rumors, leading to soaring property prices and significant market interest [3][4][10]. Group 1: Housing Market Dynamics - In Hanoi, new property projects are selling out quickly, with a notable example being "Sunshine Legend City," which saw 1,000 units attract 4,000 registrants, leading to immediate sell-out [6][7]. - The average primary sales price in Hanoi reached 80 million VND per square meter (approximately 21,000 RMB), marking a 5.6% increase from the beginning of the year and a 33% increase year-on-year [6][9]. - High-end properties in Hanoi are priced between 150 million to 300 million VND per square meter (approximately 40,000 to 80,000 RMB), reflecting a significant price surge [6][7]. Group 2: Speculative Behavior and Market Concerns - There are reports of individuals reselling social housing for profits ranging from 2 billion to 5 billion VND (approximately 54,000 to 134,000 RMB), indicating speculative activities in the market [7][10]. - The Vietnamese Ministry of Construction has highlighted that much of the recent price increases are based on unverified rumors regarding administrative adjustments, with some areas experiencing price hikes of 20-30% in a few months [10][11]. - The market is characterized by a structural mismatch, with a lack of affordable housing for low-income groups, leading to long queues for social housing applications [12][13]. Group 3: Foreign Investment and Market Outlook - Vietnam's real estate market is attracting significant foreign direct investment (FDI), with 6.3 billion USD in 2024, accounting for 16.5% of total investment, a 35% year-on-year increase [13][14]. - The legal framework improvements and infrastructure upgrades have made Vietnam's real estate market appealing to foreign investors, particularly from Singapore, Japan, and South Korea [13][14]. - Despite the positive outlook, there are concerns regarding the sustainability of price increases and the potential for market stabilization as more commercial and social housing projects enter the market [14].