第一财经·2025-12-02 10:12Core Viewpoint - The article highlights the complexity of the U.S. economic situation, indicating strong consumer spending data but underlying concerns about demand and consumer behavior shifts [3][6]. Group 1: Consumer Spending Trends - On "Cyber Monday" (December 1), U.S. online consumer spending is expected to reach $14.2 billion, a year-on-year increase of 6.3%, contributing to a total of $43.7 billion over the five days surrounding Thanksgiving [3]. - Salesforce reported a similar trend, with "Cyber Monday" sales reaching $13.4 billion, a year-on-year growth of approximately 4% [3]. - In-store sales on "Black Friday" increased by 4.1% compared to last year, according to Mastercard [3]. Group 2: Consumer Behavior and Discounts - Retailers have adopted aggressive discount strategies, with discount retailers emerging as the biggest winners this shopping season, attracting significant foot traffic [5]. - Major retailers like Walmart and Target have been more explicit in their discount promotions, indicating a shift in consumer sensitivity to prices, even among wealthier shoppers [5][10]. - Amazon has offered substantial discounts on high-value items, with reductions of 30%, 50%, and even 60% on various products [5]. Group 3: Economic Indicators and Inflation - The increase in consumer spending is partly driven by rising prices, with the Consumer Price Index (CPI) showing an inflation rate of 3% as of September [9]. - Retail volume growth has been low at approximately 0.3% year-to-date, indicating that higher prices are leading to a decrease in the quantity of goods purchased [9]. - Significant price increases were noted in categories affected by tariffs, with home goods prices rising by 24% during "Black Friday" [9]. Group 4: Income Disparities in Consumer Spending - There is a notable divergence in consumer behavior based on income levels, with high-income households continuing to spend robustly, while lower-income consumers are more selective and facing financial pressures [10]. - High-income consumers (earning $170,000 and above) have increased their spending by over 10% this year, contrasting with lower-income groups whose spending has fallen below pre-pandemic levels [9][10]. - The Federal Reserve's latest Beige Book indicates that middle and low-income consumers are increasingly seeking discounts and promotions due to financial strain [10].