黄金，失守！

Core Viewpoint - International gold prices are experiencing a continuous decline, with spot gold falling below $4200 per ounce, currently reported at $4189.03 per ounce, reflecting a drop of 1% [1]. Group 1: Market Dynamics - The decline in gold prices is attributed to rising U.S. Treasury yields and profit-taking, while investors await U.S. economic data to assess the Federal Reserve's policy direction [4]. - The 10-year U.S. Treasury yield remains near a two-week high, diminishing the appeal of non-yielding assets like gold [4]. - Market expectations indicate a nearly 90% probability of a Federal Reserve rate cut in December, alongside a continuous decline in the U.S. dollar index [4]. Group 2: Comparative Analysis - Short-term gold price trends appear weaker compared to silver, with a general rise in the base metals sector indicating a recovery in market risk appetite, which is unfavorable for gold prices [4]. - The U.S. ISM Manufacturing PMI for November fell short of expectations and has contracted for nine consecutive months, heightening concerns over economic slowdown and monetary policy easing [4]. Group 3: Geopolitical and Economic Factors - Geopolitical uncertainties are heightened by discussions within the Trump administration regarding further actions in Venezuela and the Russian military's control over two key towns in Ukraine, which may boost safe-haven demand [4]. - Conversely, signals from the Bank of Japan's governor regarding potential interest rate hikes suggest a tightening global liquidity environment, which could limit upward movement in precious metals [4]. Group 4: Future Outlook - Analysts predict that despite the current market pressures, the combination of weak economic data and geopolitical risks may provide short-term support for gold prices [4]. - The overall sentiment remains that the anticipated Federal Reserve rate cuts will support gold prices from a yield perspective [5].