年轻人最爱的“情绪生意”，为何仍危机四伏？

Core Viewpoint - Soul, the anonymous virtual social platform founded by Zhang Lu in 2016, has submitted its prospectus for an IPO in Hong Kong after previous attempts in the U.S. and Hong Kong failed. The company claims to have turned a profit in 2023 after incurring approximately 1.5 billion yuan in adjusted net losses from 2020 to 2022, with a projected maximum adjusted net profit of 360 million yuan in 2025 [1][2][12]. Group 1: Financial Performance - Soul's revenue projections for 2022 to 2025 are 1.67 billion, 1.85 billion, 2.21 billion, and 1.68 billion yuan, with over 90% of revenue coming from "emotional value services" and only 10% from advertising [8]. - Despite a high gross margin of 81.5% for "emotional value services," Soul's net profit margin has been declining due to high sales and marketing expenses, which accounted for 40% to 50% of total revenue from 2022 to 2025 [9][11]. - The company has accumulated significant financial liabilities, with redeemable shares and obligations reaching 11 billion, 11.66 billion, 12.27 billion, and 12.4 billion yuan from 2022 to 2025, impacting net profit due to high financial costs [14]. Group 2: User Engagement and Challenges - Soul's monthly active users peaked in 2022, with a projected decline to 28 million by August 2025, down from 29.4 million in 2022 and 31.6 million in 2021 [10][9]. - The average revenue per paying user increased from 75.3 yuan in 2022 to 104.4 yuan by August 2025, but user complaints regarding automatic renewals and refund difficulties have surged, with over 5,600 complaints reported [15][16]. - The platform has faced scrutiny for its governance, with issues related to scams and inappropriate content leading to regulatory challenges, including a previous suspension in 2019 due to violations [21][22].