炼化反内卷，行业加速头部化

Core Viewpoint - The refining and chemical industry in China is expected to experience a significant turnaround by the second half of 2025, driven by policy changes and the consolidation of advanced capacities [1]. Group 1: Industry Policy and Capacity Allocation - In late November, China issued early crude oil import quotas for 2026, with major private refining companies like Hengli Petrochemical receiving substantial allocations, indicating a shift towards advanced capacities [1]. - The early allocation of quotas in 2026 was concentrated among a few leading companies, contrasting with the previous year's distribution among numerous smaller enterprises, highlighting a trend towards industry consolidation [5]. - The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology (MIIT) has initiated measures to prevent excessive competition in the PTA and bottle-grade polyester slice industries, signaling a favorable environment for leading firms while challenging smaller players [2]. Group 2: Industry Overcapacity and Structural Changes - The PTA industry has shifted from meeting domestic demand to facing overcapacity, prompting regulatory bodies to implement measures to address this issue, including energy consumption limits for refining and chemical processes [3]. - The implementation of energy consumption limits is expected to accelerate the exit of outdated and smaller production capacities from the market, thereby improving the overall industry structure [3]. - The recent policies aim to guide the planning and layout of major petrochemical projects, controlling new refining capacities and preventing overcapacity risks in related sectors [5]. Group 3: Market Dynamics and Economic Context - The global economic downturn since 2022 has impacted demand in the polyester industry, which is closely tied to macroeconomic conditions, leading to a phase of inventory competition [2]. - The refining industry is witnessing a clear pyramid structure, where the elimination of outdated capacities can be targeted effectively, contrasting with slower clearing processes in other sectors like solar and lithium [5]. - The geopolitical landscape has also influenced energy storage demands, reducing cost pressures on the refining industry and enhancing expectations for a market turnaround [6]. Group 4: Investment Trends and Future Outlook - As of mid-2025, the construction projects in the basic chemical sector have seen a decline in investment, indicating a potential end to the capital expenditure cycle and a gradual recovery in supply dynamics [7]. - The overall profit levels in the chemical industry remain low, prompting companies to seek improvements in competitive dynamics to achieve normal profitability levels amid the ongoing "anti-involution" trend [7].