机构调查：仅8%的汽车经销商看好12月经营情况

Core Viewpoint - The latest "China Automobile Dealer Inventory Warning Index Survey" indicates a decline in the optimism of automobile dealers regarding their business conditions for December, with only 8.2% expecting a good performance, down 1.7 percentage points from the previous month [3][4]. Group 1: Dealer Expectations - The proportion of dealers expecting poor market conditions in December has increased from 17.7% to 20.3%, a rise of 2.6 percentage points [3][4]. - Only 8.2% of dealers anticipate a good business situation for December, marking the second-lowest level of the year, slightly better than the 8.1% recorded in July [4]. - 32.3% of dealers believe that market demand will decrease in December, which is an increase of 7.5 percentage points from the previous month [4]. Group 2: Inventory and Market Conditions - The inventory warning index for November was reported at 55.6%, which is an increase of 3.8 percentage points year-on-year and 3.0 percentage points month-on-month, indicating a decline in the automotive circulation industry's prosperity [4][6]. - A significant 80% of dealers held a pessimistic view of the November market, believing that overall performance did not meet expectations [6]. - Dealers are facing challenges such as reduced customer traffic, increased market hesitation, and narrowing profit margins on new car sales [7]. Group 3: Future Outlook and Recommendations - The tightening of trade-in policies and the expiration of tax exemptions for new energy vehicles are contributing factors to the current market situation [6]. - There is a market perspective suggesting that the upcoming reduction in vehicle purchase tax starting in 2026 may spur consumer purchasing enthusiasm in December [7]. - The China Automobile Circulation Association recommends that dealers rationally estimate actual market demand and enhance the promotion of trade-in and scrapping policies to boost consumer confidence [7].