手机、电脑大概率要涨价了

Core Viewpoint - The storage industry is experiencing unprecedented price increases, with expectations of further significant hikes in the near future due to supply shortages and increased demand from AI applications [3][10]. Industry Preparedness - The storage supply chain is unprepared for the sudden price increases, with many manufacturers caught off guard by the scale of the shortages [8][10]. - NAND flash manufacturers have already booked production capacity for the next three years, leaving no room for additional orders in the near term [5][10]. Price Trends - Prices for NAND flash memory have surged dramatically, with 1Tb QLC NAND flash prices increasing by 78% and DDR4 16Gb prices rising by 50% in late November [6][10]. - SSD prices have also seen significant increases, with some manufacturers reporting a 30%-40% rise in October compared to September [6][10]. Supply Chain Dynamics - The demand for storage from cloud service providers, particularly in North America, is absorbing a large portion of the available capacity, leaving consumer electronics with limited supply [12]. - Current inventory levels for smartphone manufacturers are critically low, averaging below four weeks, which is insufficient to meet future demand [12][13]. Future Outlook - The ongoing price increases are expected to persist for several years, with some industry experts predicting a supply-demand gap of at least 6% for DRAM in the coming year [10][12]. - The consumer electronics market, particularly low-end smartphones, may face severe impacts from rising storage costs, potentially shifting demand towards second-hand devices [13][14]. Technological Shifts - There is a trend towards phasing out older memory technologies in favor of more advanced options like DDR5 and LPDDR5, driven by the increasing demands of AI applications [14][15]. - Companies are investing in new product lines and expanding production capacities to meet the evolving needs of the market, although significant new capacity is not expected until at least 2027 [10][15].