央行连续两月开展国债买卖操作

Core Viewpoint - The People's Bank of China (PBOC) has resumed government bond trading operations, injecting long-term liquidity into the banking system, signaling a supportive monetary policy stance to stabilize macroeconomic performance in Q4 2025 and Q1 2026 [3][4]. Group 1: Central Bank Operations - In November 2025, the PBOC conducted a net injection of 50 billion yuan through government bond trading, an increase of 30 billion yuan compared to October [3]. - The PBOC's actions reflect a favorable overall operation of the bond market, allowing for the resumption of bond trading after a pause due to previous market imbalances [3][4]. - The central bank's liquidity tools included a net injection of 254 billion yuan through the Pledged Supplementary Lending (PSL) and 1,150 billion yuan through other structural monetary policy tools, alongside a net injection of 1,000 billion yuan via Medium-term Lending Facility (MLF) [4][5]. Group 2: Market Conditions and Economic Indicators - The liquidity market remained relatively loose in October, with low fluctuations in repo rates, although there was a marginal increase in certificate of deposit rates [4]. - The overall net liquidity injection in November amounted to 650 billion yuan, slightly higher than in October, indicating a continued effort to support the economy [6]. - Economic indicators such as the GDP growth rate of 4.8% in Q3 and a PMI average of 49.85% for October-November suggest a slowdown in economic activity, reinforcing the need for supportive monetary policies [8]. Group 3: Future Outlook - The PBOC's bond buying amounts are critical indicators; larger purchases may boost expectations for a looser monetary policy, while smaller amounts could dampen market confidence [8]. - As the year-end approaches, there may be increased pressure on funding, although the current liquidity remains ample, with potential for a short-term spike in funding rates [8]. - The bond market is expected to remain under pressure from new fund sales regulations, with 10-year government bond yields likely fluctuating between 1.75% and 1.85% [8].