择时重于选股？赛道基入局过早，回本路漫漫

Core Viewpoint - Public funds that entered the market during the peak of the pharmaceutical sector are facing a dilemma where even profitable performance cannot restore their reputation [1][2]. Group 1: Performance Challenges - Pharmaceutical theme funds established at the market's peak in 2021 are struggling to recover from significant losses, with some funds showing cumulative losses of up to 22% despite a rebound in 2025 [3][4]. - A specific fund launched in August 2021 experienced annual losses of 5%, 21%, 7%, and 14% in the following years, and its net asset value remains below 0.8 yuan [3][4]. - Another fund, established in April 2021, faced even worse outcomes, with its net value failing to exceed 0.5 yuan after four years of declines, despite a 20% rebound in 2025 [3][4]. Group 2: Timing and Market Sentiment - The timing of fund establishment significantly impacts long-term performance, with funds launched during euphoric market conditions more likely to suffer prolonged losses [4]. - A prominent fund manager's two funds launched in 2021 had drastically different outcomes based on their launch dates, highlighting the importance of market sentiment at the time of entry [4]. Group 3: Contractual Limitations - The limited duration of fund contracts poses a challenge for waiting for value discovery, as funds may be forced to exit before realizing potential gains [5]. - A fund that saw its net value drop to 0.52 yuan faced termination due to continuous investor redemptions, missing out on subsequent market recovery [5]. Group 4: Impact on Fund Managers - High entry costs and prolonged loss periods can lead to fund liquidation and negatively affect fund managers' careers, with some leaving the industry after their funds are closed [6]. - The survival of fund products is closely tied to timing, which also influences the career trajectories of fund managers [6]. Group 5: Focus on Pricing and Risk Management - Many fund managers emphasize the importance of reasonable pricing over merely selecting good companies, as high valuations can lead to significant performance risks [7][8]. - The phenomenon of losing money on popular stocks while gaining on less favored ones underscores the sensitivity to entry prices [7][8].