灵魂拷问：牛市还在不在？

Core Viewpoint - The current market environment is characterized by a significant number of companies experiencing declines, with over 3,000 companies seeing substantial drops since October, despite the Shanghai Composite Index showing limited retreat [4][5]. Market Performance - Since October, more than 3,000 companies have faced significant declines, with 1,100 companies rising by over 10%. A total of 3,300 companies have retreated by more than 10%, 2,049 by over 15%, and 1,024 by over 20% [4]. - The Hang Seng Technology Index has seen a nearly 20% drop, with individual stocks experiencing declines of 20-30% [5]. Market Sentiment - The question of whether a bull market still exists is raised, with the current sentiment suggesting a struggle due to high valuations and weak fundamentals [6][7]. Reasons for Market Retreat - The recent market retreat is attributed to high valuations in sectors like innovative pharmaceuticals, semiconductors, and AI, which have not seen new developments to justify their prices [9]. - The consumer sector, particularly in areas like liquor, has also shown weakness, with companies like Moutai hitting new lows [11]. Economic Environment - The macroeconomic environment remains weak, with indicators such as PMI orders declining and consumer spending showing no signs of recovery [14]. - Predictions indicate that housing prices may continue to decline, impacting household wealth and consumer confidence [15][17]. Future Outlook - The government is expected to increase liquidity support, especially with the upcoming Federal Reserve meeting and domestic economic conferences [18][19]. - The technology sector is anticipated to remain a focal point, with potential opportunities for bottom-fishing in specific segments [20]. - The market may experience a difficult period for another half month, but the bull market is still considered to be intact, pending macroeconomic support [23].