【周度分析】车市扫描(2025年11月24日-11月30日)

Market Overview - In November 2025, the retail sales of passenger cars in China reached 2.263 million units, a year-on-year decrease of 7%, but a month-on-month increase of 1%. Cumulatively, retail sales for the year reached 21.519 million units, up 6% year-on-year [2][6] - The wholesale volume of passenger cars in November 2025 was 2.992 million units, a year-on-year increase of 2% and a month-on-month increase of 2%. Year-to-date wholesale volume reached 26.766 million units, up 11% year-on-year [2][10] - The retail sales of new energy vehicles (NEVs) in November 2025 were 1.354 million units, a year-on-year increase of 7% and a month-on-month increase of 6%. Year-to-date retail sales of NEVs reached 11.504 million units, up 20% year-on-year [2][10] Retail and Wholesale Trends - The retail penetration rate of NEVs in November 2025 was 59.8%, while the wholesale penetration rate was 57.5% [3] - The average daily retail sales for the first week of November were 46,000 units, down 19% year-on-year, while the fourth week saw an increase to 126,000 units, up 2% year-on-year [5][6] - The wholesale volume for the first week of November was 52,000 units, down 22% year-on-year, but increased to 186,000 units in the fourth week, up 19% year-on-year [9][10] Profitability and Industry Performance - From January to October 2025, the automotive industry generated revenues of 887.78 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 7.9%, with profits of 38.95 billion yuan, up 4.4% year-on-year. The industry's profit margin stood at 4.4% [11] - The automotive industry is experiencing lower profitability compared to other industrial sectors, with a profit margin of 3.9% in October 2025, down from 4.1% in October 2024 [11][12] Global Market Share - In October 2025, China's automotive market share reached 38%, an increase of 1 percentage point year-on-year. Cumulatively, from January to October 2025, China's automotive sales were 27.65 million units, up 12% year-on-year [13] - Among the top 10 global automakers, three Chinese companies—BYD, Geely, and Chery—saw significant increases in their market shares [13] Export Performance - From January to October 2025, China exported 6.46 million vehicles, a year-on-year increase of 22%. In October alone, exports reached 820,000 units, up 40% year-on-year [15] - The export of NEVs in October 2025 was 328,000 units, a year-on-year increase of 65%, with a total of 2.65 million NEVs exported from January to October, up 54% year-on-year [15][17] Battery Supply and Demand - The demand for lithium batteries is expected to stabilize in the coming year, with a short-term peak in demand currently observed. The international demand for new energy vehicles is weak, influenced by policy changes in the US and Europe [14] - The current profit distribution structure in the automotive industry is unsustainable, with 85% of the total profits belonging to battery companies, leading to significant profit shrinkage for major vehicle manufacturers [14]