美元不香了，工厂挪地方了？看透全球产业链重构的4个真相

Core Insights - The article discusses the complexities and challenges of global supply chain restructuring driven by geopolitical factors, highlighting issues such as high costs, labor shortages, technological decoupling, and the weakening of the dollar's credibility [1][2]. Group 1: Technological Decoupling - Technological decoupling leads to fragmentation of global innovation and technology standards, increasing complexity in industry cooperation and hindering collaborative efforts [4][5]. - Geopolitical risks elevate uncertainty in global economic development, prompting companies to increase liquidity assets, which in turn reduces domestic R&D investments [5]. - Export controls from leading nations on technology-chasing countries may force innovation but also complicate compliance and increase operational costs for multinational companies [5] Group 2: Social and Environmental Costs - The restructuring of global supply chains faces challenges such as labor market imbalances and high costs associated with manufacturing return policies [6][7]. - Labor disputes and dissatisfaction in traditional outsourcing locations like Mexico hinder the stability of supply chains, while skill mismatches in returning economies slow down manufacturing restructuring [6]. - High costs of manufacturing return weaken the effectiveness of policy incentives, as seen in the U.S. semiconductor industry, where local supply chain foundations are lacking [6][7]. Group 3: Dollar System Erosion - The restructuring of global supply chains is accompanied by a significant shift in the financial order, with a notable trend towards "de-dollarization" [9][10]. - Emerging markets are increasingly adopting local currency settlements in trade, as evidenced by the rising use of the yuan in trade between China and Russia [9]. - The weakening of the dollar's internal credit mechanism accelerates the de-dollarization process, with countries like Brazil and Argentina seeking financial cooperation with China to mitigate dollar risks [10]. Group 4: New Regional Competition Dynamics - The emergence of new regional competition reflects a split in standards between the Global North and South, with contrasting approaches to technology and resources [12][13]. - The disparity in technological capabilities between countries, particularly in foundational research, complicates global supply chain integration and innovation [12]. - Resource nationalism is becoming a significant factor in global supply chain dynamics, as countries assert control over critical resources, leading to increased competition and price volatility [13].