择时重于选股？赛道基入局过早，回本路漫漫

Core Viewpoint - Public funds that entered the market during the peak of the sector's prosperity are facing the awkward situation where even making profits cannot restore their reputation [1][3]. Group 1: Performance Challenges - Medical-themed funds established at the peak in 2021 have struggled to regain investor trust despite potential rebounds in 2025, with significant losses over the previous four years [3][4]. - A specific fund launched in August 2021 reported annual returns of -5%, -21%, -7%, and -14% for the years 2021 to 2024, respectively, and despite a 30% gain in 2025, its net asset value remains below 0.8 yuan, reflecting a cumulative loss of 22% [3][4]. - Another fund, established in April 2021, faced even worse outcomes, with a net value that did not exceed 0.5 yuan after four years of declines, despite a 20% rebound in 2025 [3][4]. Group 2: Timing and Value Discovery - The timing of fund establishment significantly impacts long-term performance, with funds launched during euphoric market conditions facing higher probabilities of long-term losses [4][5]. - The inability to wait for value discovery due to limited fund contract durations can lead to premature exits from the market, as seen with a fund that lost 48% of its value and was forced to terminate its contract due to insufficient scale [5][6]. - The irony lies in the fact that some funds missed out on recovery opportunities shortly after announcing their liquidation, highlighting the critical nature of timing in fund management [6]. Group 3: Importance of Price and Risk Management - Many fund managers emphasize the importance of reasonable pricing over merely selecting good companies, as high valuations can lead to significant performance risks [8][9]. - The phenomenon of losing money on popular stocks while gaining on less favored ones illustrates the sensitivity to entry prices [8][9]. - Fund managers advocate for identifying undervalued assets with potential for improvement, as this approach is seen as essential for achieving sustainable excess returns [9].