天然气重卡迎来“三分天下”关键期

Core Viewpoint - The natural gas heavy truck market has entered a new development phase, achieving its first "three consecutive increases" in sales this year, with a significant year-on-year growth of 13.8% in October, driven by gas price advantages and market demand [3][4]. Market Performance - Since the second quarter of this year, the domestic heavy truck market has shown a recovery, with monthly sales increasing for seven consecutive months starting from April. In October, natural gas heavy truck sales reached 21,100 units, marking a 10% decrease from September but a 13.8% increase year-on-year. Cumulatively, sales from August to October reached 61,200 units, up over 15% compared to the same period last year [3][5]. - The market share of natural gas heavy trucks in the terminal market reached 30.09% in October, a significant increase from 21.77% in July, and for the first time surpassed that of new energy heavy trucks after five months of lagging behind [5][6]. Policy and Economic Drivers - The market recovery is supported by unprecedented policy backing, including the expansion of the "old-for-new" vehicle replacement policy to include natural gas models, which stimulates demand for new energy and natural gas vehicles [6][7]. - Economic advantages are a core driver, with the price of LNG dropping below 4.5 yuan/kg in many regions, maintaining a stable oil-gas price difference of 2.5-3 yuan/kg. This results in significant cost savings for users, with natural gas vehicles saving over 80,000 yuan annually compared to diesel vehicles [7][8]. Application and Market Segmentation - Natural gas heavy trucks and new energy heavy trucks complement each other, with natural gas trucks being more advantageous in medium to long-distance freight and complex working conditions. Key consumption markets include Hebei, Shandong, Henan, and Shanxi, which account for 41.8% of sales [8][9]. Future Outlook - The heavy truck industry is expected to undergo a structural turning point, transitioning from quantity to quality. Companies should focus on structural opportunities and enhance product and service competitiveness [9][10]. - The development of infrastructure and energy strategy will significantly impact the market structure, with a projected increase in the share of new energy vehicles from 20% to 80% by 2060 [9][10]. - While the short-term outlook for natural gas and new energy heavy trucks is positive, long-term competition and challenges in the medium to long-distance market require coordinated efforts in policy, technology, and market development [10].