“小非农”意外利空，美联储鹰派是否会让步

Core Viewpoint - The article highlights a significant decline in private sector employment in the U.S. for November, marking the largest drop in nearly two and a half years, primarily driven by job losses in small businesses. This trend indicates a slowdown in hiring activity, which could lead to rising unemployment rates and negatively impact the economy, influencing the Federal Reserve's upcoming interest rate decisions [3][5][10]. Employment Market Cooling - The ADP report indicates a reduction of 32,000 jobs in November, the largest decline since March 2023, with small businesses losing 120,000 jobs. This downturn is attributed to increased costs from import tariffs [5][8]. - The manufacturing sector continues to show weakness, with the ISM manufacturing employment index contracting for ten consecutive months, reflecting ongoing challenges in the job market [8][9]. - Despite a slight increase in employment in medium and large enterprises, the overall hiring freeze persists as employers navigate consumer caution and economic uncertainty [7][9]. Federal Reserve Policy Outlook - The Federal Reserve is expected to announce its final interest rate decision of the year, with labor market weakness being a primary concern. Current data suggests that while the labor market is softening, it has not deteriorated to the extent indicated by the ADP report [10][11]. - Market expectations for a rate cut by the Federal Reserve have risen significantly, with probabilities nearing 90% following the ADP report. Some officials express concerns about inflation, advocating for maintaining current rates, but this view is in the minority [11][13]. - The article notes that inflation remains a critical topic for future policy discussions, with import tariffs potentially continuing to exert upward pressure on prices, complicating the Fed's decision-making process [13].