美联储高层即将洗牌

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the potential appointment of Kevin Hassett as the new Chairman of the Federal Reserve, highlighting the implications of this change for U.S. monetary policy and the broader economic landscape under the Trump administration [3][5][9]. Group 1: Appointment of Kevin Hassett - Kevin Hassett is considered the frontrunner to succeed Jerome Powell as the Chairman of the Federal Reserve, with over 80% probability of his appointment according to Kalshi prediction market data [7]. - Hassett's previous role as the Chairman of the White House Council of Economic Advisers during Trump's first term positions him as a key figure in shaping economic policy [5][6]. - The cancellation of interviews for other candidates indicates a strong likelihood of Hassett's nomination, which could lead to significant changes in the Federal Reserve's approach to monetary policy [5][9]. Group 2: Implications for Federal Reserve Structure - If Hassett is appointed, he will face the challenge of restructuring the Federal Reserve, which currently has members appointed by both Trump and Biden [9]. - The potential departure of Powell from the Board could create additional vacancies, allowing for further influence from the Trump administration [10]. - The leadership team, if formed with Hassett, Kevin Warsh, and other supportive members, could represent a shift towards a more accommodative monetary policy stance [9]. Group 3: Market Reactions and Economic Outlook - Wall Street anticipates that Hassett's nomination could lead to a bullish trend in risk assets, although uncertainty remains if Powell does not resign promptly [12]. - Current market predictions for the federal funds rate in December 2026 are around 3.02%, but Hassett's views suggest a lower neutral rate of 2% to 2.5% [12]. - Economic forecasts indicate moderate growth for the U.S. economy in 2026, with a projected inflation rate of 2.6%, influenced by new tariffs that may dampen growth [13].