“全球近20%进口商品受到关税等措施影响”

Core Viewpoint - The WTO's annual report indicates a significant increase in global trade protectionism, with the impact of new tariffs and measures on imports growing over fourfold compared to the previous year, marking the highest level in over 15 years [3][6]. Group 1: Trade Measures and Impact - From mid-October 2024 to mid-October 2025, $2.64 trillion of global imports will be affected by tariffs and other trade measures, a fourfold increase from $611 billion in the previous period [6]. - The total trade affected, including export measures, is approximately $2.966 trillion, compared to $888 billion recorded in the last report, indicating a threefold increase [6]. - WTO members initiated an average of 32.3 trade remedy investigations per month during the review period, slightly lower than the peak of 37.3 expected in 2024, suggesting potential for more measures to be implemented [6]. Group 2: Trade Growth Projections - The WTO projects a 2.4% growth rate for global goods trade in 2025, with a further slowdown to 0.5% in 2026, driven by early imports and strong demand for AI-related products [7]. - The first half of 2025 is expected to see stronger trade growth due to sustained trade increases among most WTO members, particularly developing economies [7]. Group 3: Services Trade - The WTO forecasts that global commercial services trade volume will grow by 4.6% in 2025 and 4.4% in 2026, outpacing goods trade growth [3]. - Digital services are highlighted as the most dynamic sector, with growth rates projected at 6.1% for 2025 and 5.6% for 2026, driven by the digital revolution [9]. - The importance of integrating services into national development strategies is emphasized, as services are crucial for economic diversification and resilience [10]. Group 4: Challenges in Services Trade - Despite its economic significance, services trade has not received adequate policy attention, with barriers often being more challenging to identify compared to goods trade [11]. - Many developing and least developed countries continue to be marginalized in global services trade, missing opportunities for growth and employment [11].