10%的提升带来10万亿增量，“十五五”居民消费率大有可为

Core Viewpoint - The upcoming Central Economic Work Conference is expected to release a more proactive macro policy tone, with a focus on boosting domestic demand as a key area of attention [1] Group 1: Economic Goals and Consumer Rate - The "Suggestions" document includes "significantly improving the resident consumption rate" as a major goal for economic and social development [1] - China's resident consumption rate is projected to be approximately 39.9% of GDP in 2024, significantly lower than the 50%-70% range seen in developed countries [1][5] - A 10 percentage point increase in the resident consumption rate could generate over 10 trillion yuan in economic growth [2][5] Group 2: Structural Shortcomings and Potential Growth - The current resident consumption rate in China is about 40%, which is 10-30 percentage points lower than that of developed countries, particularly in service consumption [5][6] - If the resident consumption rate increases by 10 percentage points, it could lead to a consumption increment of 13.5 trillion yuan, equivalent to 53.2% of the total export value in 2024 [5][6] Group 3: Policy Recommendations and Measures - The "Suggestions" propose various measures to boost consumption, including enhancing public service spending, increasing the supply of quality consumer goods and services, and promoting service consumption [8][11] - Investment in human capital is emphasized as a new development stage, focusing on improving education, social security, and healthcare [8][9] Group 4: Long-term Strategies for Consumption Growth - Experts suggest that enhancing resident consumption rates requires a focus on increasing disposable income, improving social security systems, and fostering a unified national market [12][13] - The government plans to issue special bonds for consumer goods replacement programs, with a scale of 150 billion yuan in 2024, increasing to 300 billion yuan in 2025 [11]