人民币汇率短期“破7”概率大

Core Viewpoint - The recent acceleration of the RMB appreciation has sparked market attention, with increasing discussions on whether the exchange rate against the USD can break the 7.0 mark. As of December 4, the RMB's central parity against the USD was adjusted up by 21 basis points to 7.0733, the highest level since October 14, 2024. The market sentiment is optimistic about the short-term outlook for the RMB exchange rate, driven by multiple favorable factors, including expectations of a Fed rate cut, concentrated year-end corporate settlement demand, and stable domestic economic fundamentals [3][4][5][6]. Exchange Rate Trends - Since November, the RMB has entered a rapid appreciation cycle against the USD, with further consolidation in December. Data shows that as of December 3, the onshore and offshore RMB exchange rates were 7.0661 and 7.0583, respectively, marking an increase of 506 and 595 basis points since November 20 [5][6]. - The RMB's central parity has shown a narrow upward trend in December, with fluctuations in the middle price indicating a potential central bank strategy to stabilize the exchange rate and guide two-way fluctuations [7][8]. Factors Supporting Appreciation - The market's expectation of a Fed rate cut in December has been a direct driver of the RMB's appreciation, with the USD index falling below 100, leading to a general appreciation of non-USD currencies, including the RMB [9]. - Year-end corporate settlement demand is also contributing to the RMB's strength, with significant settlement activity expected as companies convert foreign exchange earnings into RMB. Data from the foreign exchange administration indicates a surplus in bank settlements, with a notable increase in corporate settlement intentions as the year-end approaches [10][11]. Short-term Outlook - Experts predict a high probability of the RMB breaking the 7.0 mark in the short term, supported by seasonal settlement demand and a weaker USD index due to anticipated Fed rate cuts. The market sentiment is buoyed, suggesting that the RMB may reach this threshold before the end of the year [14][15]. - However, there are uncertainties regarding the RMB's ability to maintain levels below 7.0 in the long term, with various factors influencing its stability [16]. Long-term Considerations - Looking ahead to 2026, the likelihood of significant RMB appreciation driven by a depreciating USD is considered low. Factors such as high tariffs impacting global trade and China's exports may exert downward pressure on the RMB [17][18]. - The regulatory environment is expected to provide support for the RMB, with the potential for a stable exchange rate around the 7.0 to 7.2 range, allowing for two-way fluctuations [18].