四类标的有望成配置主线！专家把脉2026年可转债市场→

Core Viewpoint - The 2026 convertible bond market is expected to maintain high valuations due to a favorable equity market, policy benefits, and sustained inflow of "fixed income+" funds, with a focus on sectors benefiting from technology growth, energy transition, and low-volatility assets [1][4]. Group 1: Market Trends and Valuation - Since 2025, the convertible bond market has seen a significant recovery in valuations, driven by a rebound in the equity market, particularly in the technology sector, and a substantial reduction in risks related to delisting and defaults [3]. - The China Securities Index for convertible bonds reached a 10-year high in August 2025, reflecting the market's positive sentiment and valuation recovery [4]. - The optimistic outlook for the equity market, supported by policy incentives and strong demand for equity assets, is expected to sustain high valuations in the convertible bond market through 2026 [4][5]. Group 2: Supply and Demand Dynamics - The supply of convertible bonds is not expected to increase rapidly in 2026, while demand from "fixed income+" products remains strong, creating a tight supply-demand balance that supports high valuations [5]. - The impact of convertible bond terms and credit risks on valuations is minimal, as the market is unlikely to experience significant credit risk under stable equity conditions [5]. Group 3: Investment Strategies and Risks - The "dual low" strategy, which relies on low prices and low valuations, faces challenges as the number of low-priced convertible bonds decreases and their valuations rise, limiting the selection range for investors [6][7]. - There are concerns that if the equity market adjusts, the convertible bond market could face a "double hit" in valuations, potentially leading to greater declines than in the equity market [7]. - In light of high valuations, it is recommended to prioritize index and quantitative strategies, focusing on high-quality stocks and sectors with strong growth potential, such as technology and manufacturing [8].