手机要涨价了，存储芯片飙涨超黄金白银，业内称很震惊，从业十几年来第一次遇到

Core Viewpoint - The storage industry is experiencing a significant price surge, with expectations of continued increases in 2024 due to high demand driven by AI applications and a shift in production focus towards high-end products [1][3][10]. Group 1: Price Increases in Storage Chips - SK Hynix announced a contract price increase of up to 30% for DRAM and NAND in Q4, while SanDisk raised NAND flash contract prices by approximately 50%, marking the largest single price adjustment in this round of increases [1][3]. - By Q3 2025, DRAM prices are projected to rise by 171.8% compared to the same period last year, with storage chip price increases outpacing those of precious metals [1][3]. - The price of consumer DRAM is expected to increase by nearly 50% in Q4 2023, reflecting a competitive pricing environment among manufacturers [10]. Group 2: Impact on Consumer Electronics - The ongoing rise in storage chip prices is anticipated to lead to higher overall smartphone prices, with the current cycle of price increases expected to last longer than the previous eight-quarter cycle [3][6]. - The demand for LPDDR4 is expected to decrease significantly by 2026, dropping from 39% to 26% of total LPDDR supply, while LPDDR5's share will increase from 60% to 73% [7][9]. - The cost pressures from rising storage prices are likely to impact the upgrade intentions and replacement plans for smartphones and laptops, with expected declines in shipment growth rates for both categories in 2026 [7][9]. Group 3: Structural Changes in Production - Major manufacturers like Samsung, SK Hynix, and Micron are shifting production capacity away from lower-margin traditional DRAM products to higher-value products like HBM and DDR5, leading to a tightening supply of LPDDR4 [6][11]. - The demand for AI servers is significantly higher than for traditional servers, with AI servers requiring eight times the DRAM and three times the NAND compared to standard servers [5][9]. - Despite increased capital expenditures for new production facilities, the effective supply output in 2026 will remain limited, creating ongoing challenges for smaller manufacturers in the storage market [11][12].