聚焦全球能源 | 中国下游天然气2026年展望

Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes the critical role of natural gas in China's energy strategy, particularly in achieving carbon peak goals by 2030 and enhancing energy security. The expected annual growth rate of natural gas production in China from 2025 to 2035 is projected to be 5.3% [3]. Group 1: Energy Policy and Market Outlook - China's natural gas policy is set to boost industry development, with a focus on increasing domestic production and achieving a self-sufficiency rate of 71% by 2050, significantly higher than the 47% expected for the oil sector [3]. - Decision-makers are reducing pipeline transportation prices by at least 8% to stimulate natural gas usage, which could lead to a 10%-15% increase in gas transmission volumes [3]. - The demand for natural gas is expected to rise due to the shift in energy consumption structure, with natural gas's share in total energy consumption projected to increase from 8.9% in 2025 to 16% by 2035 [14]. Group 2: Performance and Valuation - As of September 30, Asian gas stocks have risen by an average of 3.6%, lagging behind the MSCI Energy Index's 7.6% increase, indicating a rebound from earlier lows [4]. - Despite the overall positive market sentiment, the price-to-book ratios of companies like Xinao Energy and China Gas remain near five-year lows, suggesting potential undervaluation [4]. - Xinao Energy's price-to-book ratio is 1.5 times, compared to a five-year average of 2.6 times, while China Gas's ratio is 0.8 times against a five-year average of 1.3 times [4]. Group 3: Supply and Demand Dynamics - The geopolitical landscape, particularly the Russia-Ukraine conflict, has heightened the focus on energy security, prompting China to prioritize domestic natural gas supply and production growth [10]. - By 2030, domestic natural gas production is expected to meet 59.8% of demand, increasing to 71.1% by 2050, as exploration and development activities ramp up [17]. - China's LNG import sources are diversifying, with Russia expected to become a major supplier, potentially surpassing Australia in the long term [19].