印度宣布降息！

Core Viewpoint - The Reserve Bank of India (RBI) has cut interest rates by 125 basis points this year, with the latest reduction of 25 basis points announced on December 5, marking the fourth cut of the year. The RBI is also easing its intervention in the currency market as the Indian rupee continues to depreciate [1][3]. Group 1: Interest Rate Cuts - The RBI's Monetary Policy Committee, led by Governor Sanjay Malhotra, unanimously voted to lower the repo rate to 5.25%, maintaining a neutral policy stance. Malhotra noted that low inflation and strong economic growth indicate a "rare golden period" for India, despite some key economic indicators showing weakness [3]. - The third quarter saw bank economic growth at 8.2%, exceeding expectations, while inflation was only 0.25%. However, there are concerns about potential economic slowdown in the second half of the fiscal year due to global trade uncertainties [3]. Group 2: Economic Indicators - Industrial activity in India fell to its lowest point in nearly 14 months in October, with the HSBC manufacturing PMI dropping to a near nine-month low in November, indicating an economic slowdown. Exports to the U.S. have also declined for two consecutive months, with a year-on-year drop of 8.5% in October and an overall export decline of 11.8% [3]. - In response to U.S. tariffs on Indian goods, the Indian government reduced the Goods and Services Tax rate in September to boost domestic demand. Tax revenue surged to ₹1.95 trillion in October, a 4.6% year-on-year increase, but growth slowed to 0.7% in November with total tax revenue at ₹1.7 trillion [3]. Group 3: Currency Depreciation - The RBI has signaled a tolerance for the depreciation of the Indian rupee, which has faced multiple risks, including an expanding trade deficit and capital outflows. The rupee fell to a historic low of 90 rupees per dollar on November 3 [6]. - The RBI's intervention strategy is shifting to focus on curbing excessive volatility rather than defending a specific exchange rate, as maintaining foreign exchange reserves is deemed ineffective under adverse fundamental conditions [6]. - Foreign investors have sold $17 billion worth of Indian stocks this year, contributing to the capital outflow, while foreign direct investment and trade flows have also slowed [6].