稀土价格高涨趋于常态

Core Viewpoint - The ongoing geopolitical tensions between China, the U.S., and Japan are significantly impacting the rare earth market, with prices continuing to rise despite temporary measures to delay stricter export controls from China [2][6]. Group 1: Rare Earth Prices - Rare earth prices are experiencing a significant increase, with cesium reaching $910 per kilogram, over three times the pre-export control level, and terbium at $3,700 per kilogram, approximately four times higher, marking the highest levels since May 2015 [4]. - The market remains skeptical about the effectiveness of the U.S.-China agreements, with analysts predicting that high prices will persist due to ongoing supply concerns, particularly for markets outside the U.S. [6][9]. Group 2: Export Controls and Geopolitical Tensions - China has been limiting the export of rare earths since April, with new regulations requiring permits for products containing even small amounts of Chinese rare earths [6]. - Following the October U.S.-China summit, China postponed the implementation of stricter export controls for one year, while the U.S. delayed imposing additional tariffs [6][7]. - Concerns are rising regarding Japan's relationship with China, reminiscent of past export halts, prompting Japanese companies to consider sourcing rare earths outside of China [9]. Group 3: Gallium Market - Similar to rare earths, gallium prices are also on the rise, with prices reaching $1,325 per pound, approximately 2.3 times higher than at the beginning of the year, marking the highest level since 2002 [7]. - China's dominance in gallium production is notable, with 99% of the output expected to be from China by 2024, and existing export controls are likely to remain in place for regions outside the U.S. [6][7].