日本赴美航空货物运费持续高位运行

Core Viewpoint - The increase in cargo transported from Southeast Asia and other regions to the United States via Japan is notable, with significant growth in e-commerce shipments from platforms like Temu and SHEIN, impacting freight rates [2][6]. Group 1: Freight Rate Trends - In the second half of 2025, freight rates from Tokyo to the U.S. East Coast are expected to be around 1,020 to 1,220 yen per kilogram, while rates to the U.S. West Coast will be approximately 960 to 1,100 yen per kilogram, maintaining the elevated levels from 2024 [5]. - The freight rates for air cargo from Japan have remained high, with negotiations resulting in agreements to keep rates stable after significant increases in 2024 [2][5]. Group 2: E-commerce and Cargo Dynamics - The surge in shipping volumes from Chinese e-commerce platforms like Temu and SHEIN has driven up freight rates, which have also affected Japan's shipping costs [6]. - Following the U.S. cancellation of the small import tax exemption, there has been a slowdown in e-commerce shipments from China, alongside a general decline in non-e-commerce cargo due to U.S.-China tariff tensions [6][7]. Group 3: Regional Shipping Insights - There is a growing trend of increased cargo volume from Southeast Asia and Taiwan to the U.S., with a shift in sourcing away from mainland China, particularly in sectors like semiconductors and electronic components [7][10]. - The demand for cargo transported via Japan remains robust, supporting freight rates despite a lack of growth in shipments directly from Japan [7][8]. Group 4: Market Sentiment and Future Outlook - A large freight forwarder indicated that initial strong performance of cargo from Asia was used as leverage in negotiations, but ultimately, rates remained unchanged due to market conditions [7]. - The Japan Air Cargo Transport Association reported a continuous decline in Japan's air cargo exports to the U.S. for three consecutive months, indicating a cautious market sentiment [7].