氧化铝期货跌破2600元/吨关口！高成本产能面临出清

Core Viewpoint - The recent sharp decline in alumina futures prices has breached the cash production cost line for most domestic alumina producers, indicating a significant oversupply in the market [2][5][6]. Group 1: Price Movement and Market Conditions - On December 5, 2025, the main alumina futures contract closed at 2590 yuan/ton, marking a new low and falling below the 2600 yuan/ton threshold [2][5]. - The current futures price is below the industry-recognized cash production cost range of 2850 to 2950 yuan/ton, with total costs between 3070 to 3170 yuan/ton [5][11]. - The simultaneous decline in both futures and spot prices has created a "double kill" scenario, where market participants face losses regardless of their positions [2][5]. Group 2: Supply and Demand Dynamics - The industry consensus is forming that unless there is a substantial reduction in production through maintenance, the downward trend in prices is unlikely to reverse [3][12]. - Domestic alumina production capacity remains high, leading to a clear oversupply situation, particularly with inventory pressures from delivery warehouses [6][12]. - The demand for alumina is constrained by the total capacity of the downstream electrolytic aluminum industry, limiting the potential for significant increases in consumption [7][12]. Group 3: Future Outlook and Challenges - The expectation of passive production cuts is becoming a reality, as high-cost producers face losses with current pricing levels [11][12]. - External market uncertainties, particularly regarding raw material prices, could further impact high-cost production capacities [12]. - Despite potential positive influences from policy factors, immediate challenges include increased production capacity, falling bauxite prices, and rising import volumes [13].