185亿资金追捧有色金属，有指数年内狂飙80%

Core Viewpoint - The remarkable 80% increase in the Shenwan primary industry non-ferrous metals index in the A-share market this year is driven by global liquidity expectations, supportive "anti-involution" policies, and new demands from AI and renewable energy [1][3]. Group 1: Market Performance - The non-ferrous metals index has surged by 80.45% year-to-date, with the copper index skyrocketing over 103% [5]. - Eight non-ferrous metal ETFs have attracted a total of 18.5 billion yuan in inflows this year, indicating strong investor interest [5]. - In the first week of December alone, nearly 1.2 billion yuan flowed into these ETFs, suggesting sustained buying momentum [5]. Group 2: Fund Flows and Sentiment - Recent data shows a net inflow of 394 million yuan into the non-ferrous metals sector, including rare earths and tungsten [5]. - There are signs of short-term speculative funds exiting the market, indicating a potential overheat in market sentiment [5]. - The enthusiasm for non-ferrous metal ETFs has created a "sentiment peak" as ETF subscription rates rise alongside stock price increases [5]. Group 3: Sector Differentiation - Copper is identified as the "king of metals," driven by its essential role in new energy and AI data center construction, making it a primary focus for investors [6]. - Precious metals like gold and silver are benefiting from increased global central bank purchases and expectations of interest rate cuts, showing strong independent performance [6]. - Aluminum is supported by supply-side constraints and demand trends towards lightweight materials, leading to a widely recognized valuation recovery [6]. Group 4: Future Drivers - The expectation of loose global liquidity is a core driver for the strong performance of non-ferrous metals, with a weak dollar expected to support a commodity bull market [8]. - Supply constraints are evident, particularly in copper, where major mining companies face challenges such as declining ore grades and rising extraction costs [8]. - Emerging demands from sectors like renewable energy and AI are anticipated to lead to explosive growth in the demand for metals such as copper, aluminum, lithium, and tin [8]. Group 5: Investment Outlook - Institutional investors remain bullish on non-ferrous metals, with predictions for copper prices to range between $10,000 and $12,000 per ton by 2026 [9]. - The overall market sentiment supports the likelihood of a cross-year rally in non-ferrous metals, with a focus on strong-performing varieties [9]. - The driving forces behind the rise in non-ferrous metals remain unchanged, suggesting continued upward potential in the coming year [9].