年内暴涨90%！昔日“贵金属之王”归来！

Core Viewpoint - The article highlights the significant rise in platinum prices, which have increased by 90% this year, amidst a broader surge in precious metals like gold, silver, and copper, which have also reached historical highs for the first time since 1980 [2][3][4]. Group 1: Historical Context of Platinum - Platinum has experienced a dramatic price increase this year, following several years of low performance, with its price historically being sensitive to supply and demand dynamics [6][10]. - In the early 2000s, platinum was in high demand due to its use in automotive catalysts, leading to a structural bull market where prices soared from under $400/oz to a peak of $2273/oz in 2008 [12][15]. - The financial crisis in 2008 caused a significant drop in platinum prices, marking the end of its "golden era" driven by traditional fuel vehicle demand [16][17]. Group 2: Supply and Demand Dynamics - The supply of platinum is highly concentrated, with approximately 90% of global production coming from South Africa and Russia, making it sensitive to geopolitical and economic factors [9][40]. - The market has faced a significant supply deficit, with the World Platinum Investment Council predicting a shortfall of 22 tons for the third consecutive year [38]. - The mining industry requires over ten years for new projects to come online, and the past decade of low prices has led to a lack of investment in new mining projects [40][41]. Group 3: Emerging Demand Factors - Industrial demand for platinum is on the rise, particularly due to the increasing adoption of hybrid vehicles and the need for platinum in hydrogen fuel cells, which are gaining traction as a clean energy solution [48][51]. - The rapid growth of AI and data centers is expected to double electricity demand by 2030, further driving the need for platinum in various applications [50]. - The demand for platinum in jewelry is also recovering, with significant increases in retail investment, particularly in China, which has become the largest market for platinum retail investment [59][62]. Group 4: Investment Landscape - The investment landscape for platinum has shifted, with increased attention and inflows into ETFs, indicating a growing interest among investors [58]. - The price of platinum has been rising, but its correlation with gold and the dollar index is weakening, suggesting a return to its intrinsic commodity characteristics [66]. - Despite the recent price surge, there is potential for price corrections, and the market remains sensitive to geopolitical events and monetary policy changes [70][72].