财联社·2025-12-07 13:30Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the significant increase in sulfur prices, which have risen to over 4,100 yuan per ton, driven by supply-demand imbalances and geopolitical factors, indicating a strong market outlook for sulfur in the near future [2][4][5]. Supply and Demand Dynamics - As of December 7, sulfur prices at China's Zhenjiang port reached 4,115 yuan per ton, up approximately 465 yuan from the previous month and over 163% from the beginning of the year [4]. - The global sulfur supply is projected to be around 81 million tons, with demand at approximately 82 million tons, indicating a widening supply-demand gap [6]. - The supply of sulfur in China has decreased, with November production at 101.17 million tons, a reduction of 5.32% month-on-month [7]. Price Trends and Forecasts - Analysts expect the strong sulfur market to continue at least until the first quarter of next year, with potential price peaks in the second quarter or later due to increased supply from Russia and the Middle East [3][13]. - Internationally, Qatar's sulfur contract prices have surged to 495 USD per ton, marking a 198% increase compared to the beginning of the year [5]. Industry Impact - Major refining companies such as Sinopec and PetroChina are significantly involved in sulfur production, with capacities of 8.34 million tons and 3.68 million tons per year, respectively [13]. - Companies with integrated sulfur or sulfuric acid resources are better positioned to withstand cost pressures, while smaller firms reliant on external sulfur supplies face operational challenges [14]. Geopolitical Influences - The ongoing geopolitical tensions, particularly the Russia-Ukraine conflict, have severely impacted sulfur exports from Russia, which are expected to drop significantly by 2026 [9][10]. - China's dependence on imported sulfur is projected to rise from 42% in 2022 to between 49% and 50% by 2025, highlighting the increasing reliance on foreign sources [10]. Downstream Demand - Over 50% of sulfur is used in phosphate fertilizer production, with new demands emerging from lithium iron phosphate and solid-state batteries, which are expected to drive additional sulfur demand [11][12]. - The production of lithium iron phosphate in China is anticipated to increase from 1.5 million tons in 2022 to over 3.6 million tons in 2025, corresponding to an additional demand for 106,000 tons of sulfur [11].