黑天鹅突袭！股汇“双杀”，大选突生变数！

Core Viewpoint - The unexpected political event in Brazil has led to a significant decline in the financial market, with the Ibovespa index dropping over 4%, marking the largest single-day decline since 2021, and the Brazilian real depreciating over 2% against the US dollar [1][2]. Group 1: Political Developments - Flávio Bolsonaro, son of former President Jair Bolsonaro, announced his candidacy for the 2026 presidential election with his father's support, intending to compete against current President Lula [2][3]. - Flávio aims to continue his father's "national plan" and has received backing from the leadership of the right-wing Liberal Party, which holds the largest bloc in Congress [3][5]. - Prior to this announcement, investors were more optimistic about Tarcisio de Freitas, the Governor of São Paulo, representing the right in the election, believing that the Bolsonaro family would struggle to challenge Lula [5][6]. Group 2: Market Reactions - The announcement of Flávio's candidacy has led to a "double hit" in the Brazilian financial market, with the Ibovespa index falling by 4.31% and the Brazilian real dropping by 2.5% [2][5]. - Analysts suggest that the market's reaction indicates a significant reduction in bets on Freitas's candidacy, reflecting concerns over the potential fragmentation of the right-wing coalition [5][6]. Group 3: Economic Context - Brazil's economy grew by only 0.1% in the third quarter, slightly below the market expectation of 0.2%, indicating a slowdown in economic momentum [6]. - The growth rate has decreased from 1.5% in the first quarter to 0.3% in the second quarter, highlighting signs of economic cooling under high interest rates [6]. - According to Austin Rating, Brazil's GDP ranking has dropped to 11th globally, with Russia moving up to 9th place, attributed to the significant appreciation of the Russian ruble [6][7].