中小银行“关闭潮”，才刚刚开始

Core Viewpoint - The Chinese banking industry is experiencing a significant wave of closures and mergers, particularly among small and medium-sized banks, driven by regulatory pressures and deteriorating profitability [3][4][12]. Group 1: Current Trends in Banking - As of November 28, 2025, 368 banks have been deregistered due to regulatory approvals for mergers or dissolutions, surpassing the total for the previous year and indicating a rapid acceleration in closures [2][4][5]. - The trend shows a stark increase in closures: 27 in 2022, 64 in 2023, 192 in 2024, and over 300 in 2025 within less than a year [5]. - Village banks are particularly affected, with several merging into larger banking institutions, marking a shift in the banking landscape [6][8]. Group 2: Reasons for Bank Closures - The primary reason for the closure of small banks is the continuous decline in profitability, exacerbated by macroeconomic factors such as slowing economic growth, real estate market risks, and the impact of the pandemic [12][18]. - Traditional profit models of small banks, heavily reliant on real estate and local infrastructure, are collapsing, while new economic sectors are less accessible to these banks [13][14]. - The net interest margin for small banks has significantly decreased, with rural commercial banks reporting a net interest margin of 1.72% in Q2 2024, while the non-performing loan ratio reached 3.14%, indicating unsustainable operations [15][18]. Group 3: Impact on Inclusive Finance - The closures raise concerns about the future of inclusive finance, particularly for grassroots entrepreneurs in rural areas who rely on local banks for credit [9][26]. - Small banks previously served as a crucial financial resource for individuals without substantial collateral or credit histories, facing challenges in accessing traditional financing [26][31]. - As of the end of 2024, small banks held total assets of 57.91 trillion yuan, with agricultural loans amounting to 13.11 trillion yuan, highlighting their role in supporting rural economies [27]. Group 4: Future of Banking Services - The restructuring of small banks is not merely a reduction but aims for quality improvement, with larger banks stepping in to fill the service gap [31][34]. - Large banks are increasingly focusing on rural financing, with a significant rise in the proportion of inclusive loans from state-owned banks, which increased by 19.3% from 2019 to 2025 [35][38]. - The competitive landscape is shifting, with large banks offering lower interest rates and better services, enhancing the overall quality of financial services available to consumers [38][44]. Group 5: Consumer Implications - Depositors need not worry about the safety of their funds, as larger banks will inherit the assets and liabilities of the dissolved small banks [40][42]. - The entry of larger banks into rural markets is expected to lower loan rates, benefiting borrowers significantly [43][44]. - The digital transformation brought by larger banks will improve service efficiency and accessibility, addressing previous shortcomings of small banks [44][46].